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Cornelius News

Trajectory of new COVID-19 cases may be changing for the better

Using Johns Hopkins University data, Cornelius Today compiled new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in NC per day from May 23 through June 22. While it appears that our numbers of contraction are on the rise, the gaps between the median 7-day and 31-day cases are beginning to narrow, as are the 7-day and 31-day averages.

June 23. By Dave Yochum. New data released at lunchtime today by the NC Department of Health and Human Services shows 915 people hospitalized due to COVID-19, a new high since the pandemic began in March. The number exceeds the total one week ago of 829 hospitalized statewide for the coronavirus and 528 hospitalized back on Friday May 22.

North Carolina’s Secretary of Health, Dr. Mandy Cohen, says some of the state’s COVID-19 case trends have worsened since the economy has reopened in recent weeks. It’s up to the governor whether North Carolina will move into Phase 3 this coming Friday when Phase 2 ends, or some kind of modification like Phase 2.5.

Cohen said state officials are seeing “significant spread of COVID-19 across our state” as more and more businesses reopen and social distancing restrictions are relaxing.

Statewide there were an additional 28 deaths due to COVID-19 from yesterday to today. The total number of COVID-19 cases rose by 848 to 54,453.

Trajectory may be changing

The increase, though, is smaller than some recent increases: 1,652 new cases on June 19, for example. The trajectory of new cases appears to be changing—for the better.

Cornelius Today’s analysis of new cases based on data from Johns Hopkins University shows the median number of new cases over the past week of 1,234 vs. the median daily increase of 991 during the past 31 days. The gap is 24 percent.

On June 16, we reported Johns Hopkins data showed the median number of new cases during the prior week was 1,246, 41 percent above the previous 31-day median of 884 new cases per day.

And two weeks earlier, on June 1, we reported Johns Hopkins statewide showed the median number of new cases during the previous seven days was 884, or 62 percent above the preceding 31 day median of 543.

All that said, Cohen explained that emergency room visits are trending upward for the second week in a row.

Testing is still climbing: More than 757,000 tests, up from 651,000 a week ago. It stands to reason that cases would climb, based on new tests. Nevertheless, the positive rate of tests for the virus has climbed to 10 percent, concerning to Cohen.

Mecklenburg County

In Mecklenburg County, the total number of cases of COVID-19 rose past 9,000, to 9,086, up from 8,956 yesterday and 7,468 one week ago. There was one more death due to COVID-19 in Mecklenburg, for a total of 138, up from 129 one week ago.

But the trajectory is changing here as well. The difference in the 7-day median and the 31-day median is 26 percent. Last week, the difference was 78 percent.

Mecklenburg has had a 7-day running average accounting for approximately 18.1 percent of the state-wide cases per day. It is unlikely Mecklenburg has had days with zero new cases in the past week and month, as the chart suggests, but anomalies in testing and reporting. This is especially apparent as Cornelius Today notices significant dips in NC daily new cases which coincide with the same days the county reported zero cases.