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Cornelius News

Smaller ask for hospital beds reflects improved COVID-19 morbidity forecast

Coronavirus Disease 2019 Rotator Graphic for af.mil. (U.S. Air Force Graphic by Rosario “Charo” Gutierrez)

April 8. By Dave Yochum. The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), an independent global health research organization at the University of Washington School of Medicine, is now forecasting COVID-19-related deaths in North Carolina will peak in seven days at the rate of 27 deaths statewide per day.

It’s an improvement from last week when IHME modeling was predicting deaths would peak at about 50 per day.

The IHME suggests North Carolina has enough hospital beds, including intensive care unit beds, to handle the expected surge of patients with the disease.

Atrium, Novant scale back emergency request

Atrium and Novant have scaled back the number of beds in an emergency field hospital they are now asking Mecklenburg County support for 600 beds, down from 3,000 as originally requested last week.

“If the experts from the hospital and the Army Corps of Engineers tell us we need a field hospital, then I would agree with them,” said County Commissioner Pat Cotham.

COTHAM

Flattening of the curve with social distancing measures and stay-at-home orders as well as postponing elective procedures are behind the smaller requests and the reduced demand for hospital beds.

The IHME estimates about 520 people in North Carolina will die of COVID-19, down dramatically from an initial estimate of about 2,400.

The need for intensive care beds in North Carolina has also been dramatically reduced, according to the IHME. It will peak at about 250 April 15-April 18, down from its earlier estimate of roughly 750. There are 567 available statewide, according to IMHE.

May looks much better

The NC Covid-related death rate will decline dramatically in May, according to IHME.

Nationally, IMHE projects COVID deaths to peak in about four days, with 2,212 deaths projected nationally on a single day, April 12.

Earlier projections suggested deaths to peak April 16, with 2,644 COVID-19 deaths in a single day.

The IHME is forecasting 60,415 COVID-19 deaths by Aug. 4, 2020. On April 1 IHME forecast a total of 93,765 US COVID-19 deaths through the epidemic’s first wave.

The IHME based its North Carolina outlook on several factors, including when schools were closed (March 14), a stay-at-home order (March 30), non-essential services closed (March 30) and travel severely limited (not implemented).

There have been 805 Mecklenburg County COVID-19 cases and eight related deaths, according to the Mecklenburg County Health Dept.