April 2. By Dave Yochum. The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), an independent global health research organization at the University of Washington School of Medicine, says COVID-19-related deaths in North Carolina will peak April 26-April 30 at around 49 – 51 per day. The IHME modeling suggests the actual peak in North Carolina will occur April 27.
The need for intensive care beds will peak at about the same time, at somewhere between 748 and 766. There are 567 available statewide, according to IMHE.
The NC Covid-related death rate will decline dramatically in May, according to IHME.
But it means 24 more days of increasing death rates. Nationally, IMHE projects COVID deaths to peak 11 days earlier, or April 16, with 2,644COVID-19 deaths in a single day
The IHME based its outlook on several factors, including when schools were closed (March 14), a stay-at-home order (March 30), non-essential services closed (March 30) and travel severely limited (not implemented).
There are 465 Mecklenburg County residents with COVID-19 and three related deaths, according to the Mecklenburg County Health Dept.
This IHME modeling presents the first set of estimates of predicted health service utilization and deaths due to COVID-19 by day for the next 4 months for each state in the US.
It used data on confirmed COVID-19 deaths by day from WHO websites and local and national governments; data on hospital capacity and utilization for US states; and observed COVID-19 utilization data from select locations to develop a statistical model forecasting deaths and hospital utilization against capacity by state for the US over the next 4 months
Mecklenburg County residents are under a County Stay at Home Order and a State of North Carolina Stay at Home order until April 30.
Both orders require residents to:
++Remain at home and avoid non-essential contact with others.
++Limit trips for groceries, gas, and other essentials.
++If you must go out, stay at least 6 feet from others at all times.
Roughly 18 percent of those with the COVID-19 virus will be asymptomatic for the duration of their disease, although they’re still contagious.
The more of us that “wash and distance” consistently—and the sooner—the fewer the deaths, said Cornelius Commissioner Michael Miltich.
A physician, he said this practice will provide benefits comparable to compounding interest.
MILTICH
“The sooner started, the bigger the payout. Everyone should be doing their part to keep the kill count as low as possible by following the guidelines,” Miltich said.
“We will get through this, and we’re all in this together, “ he said.
