May 14. By Dave Yochum. While local Constitutional scholars debate whether wearing face masks is a sign of government control, the reality is that Phase Two of reopening could begin in a little over a week.

But the date could change in order to control the spread of COVID-19 and Gov. Roy Cooper says it’s too early to say whether he will move it.

One of the key decision points: Is North Carolina seeing a 14-day downward trajectory or sustained leveling of positive tests as a percentage of total tests?

COVID-19 data released by the NC Dept. of Health & Human Services this morning show 16,507 cases statewide, up 4.3 percent from yesterday and 23 percent from one week ago.

It was the largest single-day increase of COVID-19 cases, up 691 in a single day.

Of course, as the state ramps up testing, there will be more laboratory-confirmed cases. Indeed, testing rose from 210,457 yesterday to 219,268 as of today, according to the NCDHHS. (A week ago, there were 171,328 tests.)

But deaths are deaths. So far, there have been 615 deaths related to COVID-19 statewide, up 18 from yesterday. One week ago the NCDHHS reported a total of 507 deaths, for an increase in 21 percent in one week.

Data from Johns Hopkins University shows new COVID-19 cases leveling off in hard-hit New Jersey and increasing in North Carolina. On the most recent day available, New Jersey had 643 new COVID-19 cases to North Carolina’s 727 cases. The worst of COVID-19 is happening in New York where a worst-case scenario is playing out. To view the Johns Hopkins data, click here. (Tomorrow we will compare North Carolina to South Carolina and Georgia.)

What about Phase Two?

Moving to Phase Two will allow North Carolina restaurants, hair salons, barber shops and gyms to open at reduced capacity.

Will Phase Two begin May 22? It all depends on Phase One going well.

And it’s unclear at this point.

Face coverings are not being worn as much as officials would like.  Birkdale Village has frequently been full of families—all seemingly far enough apart—picnicking on the artificial turf.

Meanwhile, the National Weather Service is predicting a picture-perfect weekend with highs in the upper 80s, which means more people enjoying newly reopened parks.

During an informal survey of the Harris Teeter on Old Jetton and Publix in Magnolia Plaza this morning, only about one shopper in 15 was not wearing a mask. All employees were.

In Los Angeles, the mayor has mandated that everyone must wear a mask for any task outside the home.

Hopefully, just a one-day blip

North Carolina hasn’t seen the same level of outbreak as other states, but the metrics of reopening are similar, including a decrease in hospitalizations.

Hospitalizations, outside of a one-day bump yesterday, have been leveling off. The NCDHHS reports 507 North Carolinians hospitalized yesterday due to COVID-19, down from 521 yesterday when there was a 9.68 percent increase from the day before. On Tuesday a week ago there were 534 hospitalized, so the trend appears to be in the right direction.

“Right now, we feel we are where we need to be,” Mecklenburg County Health Director Gibbie Harris said of the metrics government officials are following.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the state of North Carolina recommend that everyone wear a face covering when they’re outside the home and in settings like grocery stores.

Tracing

Testing goes hand in hand with tracing.

“When someone comes up positive, our enhanced tracing workforce will find known contacts so those people can be tested,” said Gov. Cooper. “Successful tracing builds on itself and obviously requires many more tests to be performed.”

Cooper said North Carolina has been successful in flattening the curve and limiting the number of people who’ve died because health experts have prevailed based on metrics.

“Testing and tracing is an important part as we go through these phases, because in order to keep people safe, we’re going to have to find out who is positive, and try to get them isolated and try to trace their contacts, make sure they’re tested and if they’re positive, get them isolated,” Cooper said.