April 16. By Dave Yochum. In early April, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), an independent global health research organization at the University of Washington School of Medicine, forecast COVID-19-related deaths in North Carolina would peak April 26-April 30 at around 49 to 51 per day.
Now the IHME is forecasting that COVID-19 deaths peaked at 19 per day three days ago on April 13—indicating that the worst is over. The IHME forecasts 415 COVID-19 deaths will occur in North Carolina by Aug. 4. On a national level, IHME forecasts 68,841 COVID-19 deaths by Aug.4.
Novant, for example, uses the University of Pennsylvania model which forecasts a later peak and greater demand for ventilators and ICU beds. Likewise, Mecklenburg County seems to be moving away from the IHME modeling and going to the University of Pennsylvania which is forecasting peak medical demand more than a month later than IHME.
Dr. Anthony Fauci follows the IHME model. It becomes important as various government agencies ponder when and how to put commerce and industry back to work.
So, should North Carolina open for business May 1, or at some future date this spring? Or gradually, step by step? Exactly when?
Child care, lack of testing and the time it takes to ramp up supply chains will impact how and when we get to work. It’s complicated, and differs from industry to industry. The movie theater business, for example, might not ever be the same.
Even before any decisions are made, various groups are staking out positions.
Protesters have marched on Raleigh, demanding Gov. Roy Cooper stop measures intended to slow the spread of coronavirus.
Cooper said he wants to eventually ease COVID-19 restrictions while still protecting citizens from a second wave of the virus.
“This virus is going to be with us until there is a vaccine, which may be a year or more away,” he said.
That means that as we ease restrictions, we are going to enter a “new normal.”
“We want to get back to work while at the same time preventing a spike that will overwhelm our hospitals with COVID-19 cases,” Cooper said.
Business in critical condition
The Gaston County Board of Commissioners said this in a letter to the governor April 9:
“Like you, not a day goes by that I don’t hear from a business owner that is worried how they can keep the lights on. The shutdown and uncertainty is causing a disruption that could take years to recover from.”
Dimmer switch vs. on-off switch
Cooper said the state needs to make more progress in three areas:
Testing
State planning relies on an increase in testing capabilities to identify, isolate and track new cases of COVID-19. This means having the supplies and lab capacity to do more testing across the state. Dr. Mandy Cohen, Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services, has brought together laboratory partners from the public and private sector to coordinate efforts to ensure testing – diagnostic and antibody – is widely available across the state.
Tracing
Tracing requires the state to boost the public health workforce and ability to trace contacts of new cases of COVID-19. Contact tracing can be effective at containing new outbreaks, but it requires more personnel. When a person tests positive, the tracing efforts will help identify who that individual may have been in contact with so those people can get tested and take the right precautions.
Trends
In order to ease restrictions, the state needs to understand how COVID-19 is impacting the state and impacting specific populations and regions of the state to determine when to strengthen or ease social distancing policies. Trends that will influence policy decisions will be based on data like the new positive cases, hospitalizations, deaths, as well as available supply of personal protective equipment, hospital capacity.
What the state has done and various counties have done seems to be working. North Carolina deaths are running at about 40 per 1 million citizens, considerably less than other large states and the nation as a whole.
New York State’s rate is almost 20 times higher than North Carolina.
“Because we acted early and because we acted together, we have averted the devastating scenarios we have seen playing out in other parts of our country and across the globe. We now need to look ahead at how we stay ahead of the curve. Widespread testing, aggressive contact tracing, and data-informed policy decisions are our best tools to keep our communities safe and protect our frontline workers,” said Cohen.