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Cornelius News

Silvia forecasts 2Q, 3Q recession, major challenges for some industries


March 31. By Dave Yochum. The economy is suffering mightily—but it’s by no means the end of the world or another Great Depression. So said noted economist John Silvia in an exclusive interview with Cornelius Today.

Of course, things are tanking now as America and much of the rest of the world stays at home to prevent the spread of COVID-19.

Social distancing will remain in effect at least through the end of April, meaning this will be a silent spring for countless businesses.

More than 3.28 million workers applied for unemployment benefits last week, bringing a screeching halt to any thoughts of continued job growth.

Silvia forecasts a recession during the second quarter and third quarter, with “lots of restructuring ahead—not just the retail but any venue that offers ability to accept a crowd.”

That means the greatest impact will be felt by movie theaters, restaurants, casinos, cruise lines, etc.

“People will want space between themselves,” Silvia said.


Jack Salzman, co-owner of Lake Norman Chrysler Dodge Jeep, said he is preparing for April to be down dramatically from a year ago—but only down slightly in May.

“This may be overly optimistic and time will tell,” he said.

The dealership is following the CDC guidelines and staying informed on the latest news “but there is a lot of uncertainty with this virus,” he said.

And the uncertainty is ongoing.

Multiple accounting firms and trying to make sense out of the Families First Coronavirus Response Act and the Coronavirus Aid Relief and Economic Security Act (CARES Act). For state-by-state COVID filing guidance, click here.

Modest growth coming

Silvia said the federal stimulus package will help support “modest” 2 percent gains from the third quarter of


2020 to the second quarter of next year.

From a tax perspective, the hope is that when the April 15th deadline was extended to July 15th, it would be easier on everyone to make tax payments.  Federally, it does – no payment no interest no penalty.  “That’s where simplicity ends,” says J. A. (Jay) Lesemann Jr. CPA managing member of Lesemann CPA in Birkdale.

Webinar on stimulus package

Taxpayers also have state obligations and each state is different including North Carolina – income taxes that were due April 15th can still be paid by July 15th with no penalty but taxpayers will still be assessed interest on those unpaid amounts.  The only way this can be changed is for state law to be changed.

Lesemann, a former chair of the LKN Chamber of Commerce, is holding an online seminar for business owners on what they should know about both acts on Thursday, April 2 at 9 am. Click here to RSVP.