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Cornelius News

Hospitalizations climbing, as are cases and testing

Using Johns Hopkins University’s data, Cornelius Today compiled new confirmed cases of COVID-19 per day from May 21 through June 20 in North Carolina. While it appears that our numbers of contraction are on the rise, anomalies may occur in data reporting and testing. The state’s average number of new daily cases since May 21 is 1,004 and the median is 909. The past 7-day average and median are higher, at 1,221 and 1,234, respectively. The increasing 7-day aggregates indicate both an upward trend in confirmed cases and more accessibility to testing.

June 22. By Dave Yochum. Testing for the coronavirus continues to increase dramatically—and the number of cases are climbing accordingly—but the number of hospitalizations is also climbing at a concerning level.

New data from the NC Dept. of Health & Human Services shows 804 new COVID-19 cases from yesterday to today, for a total of 53,605 statewide since tracking began in March. Hospitalizations statewide reached 870, the third-highest hospitalization count for COVID-19 statewide, up from 650 two weeks ago.

The count could be skewed by the fact that people are going back to hospitals for routine procedures, and all being tested when they arrive. Some of them may be asymptomatic—and test positive.

JACKSON

“And it’s unclear to what extent they’re being included in this hospitalization number. In short, we need to make sure we are measuring people who are hospitalized for COVID, not with COVID,” said NC Sen. Jeff Jackson.

Still, it’s unclear to what extent that explains what appears to be an ongoing increase in hospitalizations.

Phase Two of North Carolina’s coronavirus reopening is scheduled to end Friday.

Deaths due to COVID-19 appear to be leveling off. There were only three new deaths from Sunday to Monday, for a total of 1,223. Nevertheless, that’s up from 1,006 on Monday June 8.

In Mecklenburg, the NCDHHS reports a total of 137 have died due to COVID-19, up from 110 exactly two weeks ago. The total case load since March is 8,956, up from 204 from Sunday, and up 3,274 from June 8, just two weeks ago.

Jackson said Mecklenburg County data “shows a clear rebounding of hospitalization rates to their highest levels yet.”

According to JHU data, the median number of daily cases over the past seven days is running 34 percent ahead of the past 31 days, or 241 (past 7 days) vs. 179 (past 31 days).

High positives

About 10 percent of tests are now coming back positive, according to NCDHHS.

Dr. Mandy Cohen, secretary of NCDHHS, expects positive results closer to the 5 percent range.

This is one of the data points the state will use to continue the reopening process.

The state reported 804 new coronavirus cases Monday, down from 1,412 new cases Sunday.

COVID-19 hospitalizations dropped by 38 people on Sunday, and then increased by 25 as of noon today, but that’s a statewide total increase.

Cornelius Today reports only data from the NCDHHS and Johns Hopkins University for consistency and fair comparisons from county to county, as well as state to state.

New data from JHU shows the median number of new cases during the past seven days running at 1,234, vs. 909 for the past 31 days, a gain of 35.7 percent.

Nationally, the US just broke through the 120,000 level for number of deaths, or one-fourth of worldwide coronavirus fatalities, according to JHU.

Mecklenburg cases: Data from Johns Hopkins University

For a more regional context, Mecklenburg has had a 7-day running average accounting for approximately 19 percent of the state-wide cases per day. It is unlikely Mecklenburg has had days with zero new cases in the past week and month, as the chart suggests, but anomalies in testing and reporting. This is especially apparent as Cornelius Today notices significant dips in North Carolina’s daily new cases which coincide with the same days Mecklenburg reported zero cases.

Discussion

One Response to “Hospitalizations climbing, as are cases and testing”

  1. Let’s quit the confusing reporting about testing. We are being told by the White House that two much testing makes us look bad. If someone tests positive for the Covid-19 virus, then he/she has it. And if this person is not tested does not mean that he/she does not have it. Whether or not a person is tested, they may still have the virus. Serious or not serious, but they still may have it. Not testing does not make contagion go away.

    Posted by Kenneth Schammel | June 22, 2020, 4:51 pm

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