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Cornelius News

COVID-19 trajectory is still up, but is it slowing down?

Using Johns Hopkins University data, Cornelius Today compiled North Carolina’s new confirmed cases of COVID-19 per day from May 15 through June 14. While it appears that our numbers of COVID-19 contraction are on the rise, it is important to note that anomalies may occur in data reporting and testing. The state’s average number of new daily cases since May 15 is 881 and its median is 884. The past 7-day average and median are significantly higher, at 1,234 and 1,246, respectively. The increasing 7-day aggregates indicate both an upward trend in confirmed cases and more accessibility to testing. On June 14, Johns Hopkins University’s Center for Systems Science and Engineering reported 1,419 cases.

June 15.  By Dave Yochum. One day does not a trend make, but the rise in new cases of the coronavirus in North Carolina and Mecklenburg County slowed down a little overnight. It could be due to a lag in weekend reporting, but the number of new cases rose by 983 overnight, according to the NC Dept. of Health & Human Services.

For multiple days, the increase has been well over 1,000—for example, 1,768 new cases on Friday and 1,443 more new cases on Sunday. The total as of noon today is 45,102, according to the NCDHHS.

The NCDHHS reported 797 people hospitalized, down one from yesterday, but up from 739 one week ago today.

Testing for COVID-19 is way up: A total of 638,479 were tested as of noon today, up from 520,000 exactly a week ago.

Testing accounts for much of the increase, but state officials say there is more happening in terms of community spread, caused in part by the failure to socially distance and to wear face masks.

NC Rep. Christy Clark said it bears repeating that Phase 2 is called Safer at Home.

“That means we should continue to stay home especially those in the high-risk health categories,” she said. “When people go out, they should remember the 3 W’s—wear a face covering, wait six feet apart and wash hands.”

Barely half the shoppers in Harris Teeter/Old Jetton were wearing masks Sunday around 7 pm.

Indeed, the multi-day trends for the past week and the past month have not been going in the right direction. Data from Johns Hopkins University show the median number of new cases statewide rising from 884 over the past 31 days, to 1,246 during the past seven days.

The 993 new cases reported today by the NCDHHS may indicate a leveling off.

We also looked at Mecklenburg County new case data in the same manner: The past month vs. the past week of data.

The median of the past 31 days of new cases was 151.

But over the past seven days, the median was 269, all based on data from Johns Hopkins University. Cornelius Today only uses data from NCDHHS and JHU to ensure as much consistency as possible.

More than 45,000 people in North Carolina have tested positive for the coronavirus and 1,118 have died, up nine from yesterday.

In Mecklenburg County alone, the number of new cases rose 190 to a total of 7,321. One week ago there were 5,682 cases.

Mecklenburg medians: Month vs. week

Mecklenburg has had a 7-day running average accounting for 17.5% of the state-wide cases per day. It is unlikely Mecklenburg has had days with no new cases in the past week and month, as the data suggests, but actually anomalies in testing and reporting. Due to the zero-case days, the county probably accounts for a higher percentage of state-wide cases than reported in the 17.5% percentage. This is especially apparent as Cornelius Today notices significant dips in North Carolina’s daily new cases which coincide with the same days Mecklenburg reported zero cases.