With the summer selling season ending, Cornelius home prices seem to have stabilized 20 percent or more below their peak in 2007-2008.

How long it takes to get back to 2007 levels is open for debate. But showings in most price ranges are holding up, indicating that the fall will show gains from year-ago levels, both in terms of pricing and number of homes sold.

CARLYLE

“Houses are still on sale and interest rates are lower than they have been in 50 years,” says Lance Carlyle, president of Carlyle Properties in Cornelius. “Now is the time to buy, if you have the downpayment.”

There’s the rub. Banks have cracked down on mortgage lending, putting parameters in place that haven’t been seen for years.

In the high end, it means down-payments of 20 percent are the norm, as well as 20 percent cash on hand after closing, according to Reed Jackson, of Ivester-Jackson Distinctive Properties in Cornelius. For a house in the $1.7 million range, it means having around $700,000 in cash.

At the other end of the pricing spectrum, home prices are gaining their footing even after the $8,000 tax credit expired in May, which flattened prices from the entry-level range up to roughly $500,000.

JACKSON

“Once that expired, showings in the $300,000 to $500,000 range actually fell below that of the $500,000 to $1 million range, and what you’ve seen nationwide is a flattening in the lower ranges while the luxury market has generally had a solid summer for units sold,” Jackson says.

Cornelius is the rara avis for home prices, with an average home value of $229,600, according to Zillow, vs. $134,500 statewide. Matthews, at the other end of Mecklenburg County, clocks in at $199,100, according to Zillow.

Jackson says it can be easier to sell the same price house in Cornelius than adjacent towns. “Cornelius is highly desirable. From a showing activity standpoint, Cornelius shows at a 10 percent higher rate than Mooresville and Davidson,” says Jackson, a former marketing guy at a Fortune 500 company. “Amenities are more spread out in Mooresville, Cornelius schools are perceived as being strong,” he says, “while Davidson is a more specific taste, people who want to return to that small-town, village kind of atmosphere.”

As they say about politics, all real estate is local. Another truism is that the air gets pretty thin the higher one climbs the price ladder. Here’s a look at four different price ranges in Cornelius and what to expect if you’re thinking about putting your house on the market or buying.

$150,000 to $250,000

Showings are down, according to Jackson, with viewings with realtors averaging once or twice a week right now.

As of Aug. 18, there were 86 houses for sale, with 45 closings during May, June and July.
Nineteen homes were under contract as of Aug. 18. The number reflects more than a month of selling activity, based on closing times. So, the 19 under contract indicates a flattening out of the sales trend, Jackson said. It’s an inexact science, of course, but sales are traditionally brisk in the “meat of the market,” May, June and July. Jackson is forecasts roughly 10 closings per month in early fall.

The data indicate a six-month or more supply of homes in this price range.

“The absorption rate typically slows during the second half of the year. It ebbs and flows because of the seasonality of selling, so taking solds at the meat of the market in May-June-July and applying it to the rest of the year is optimistic,” Jackson said.

$250,000 to $500,000

There was an inventory of 48 Cornelius houses in this price range as of Aug. 18, with 36 deals closing between May 1 and July 30.

As of Aug. 18, nine homes were under contract in this price range. “It’s pretty clearly decelerating,” Jackson said. If you’re a seller, expect showings on the order of one a week.

“We had a buyer bubble that had developed over the last 18 months. The tax credit pulled people in,” Jackson said.

$500,000 to $1 million

In the luxury price ranges people with the money saw a buying opportunity as the recession that began in 2008 showed every sign of bottoming out earlier this year.

Showings in the price range are also running in the once per week range.
There were 71 active listings in this price range as of Aug. 18, with 24 closings in May, June and July combined, or eight per month.

As of Aug. 18, there were 18 pendings, reflecting decent demand in a segment that benefits from corporate moves. Jackson is looking for “solid activity” in this price range moving into the early fall. “You’ll continue to have houses put under contract through the holiday season. Prices in this range have stabilized; they’re off the highs, but we’re starting to see homes trade within a predictable price range,” Jackson said.
Foreclosures and short sales typically wreak havoc with prices and neighborhood trends. (see sidebar, page 5)

$1 million and up

There were 67 active listings over $1 million in Cornelius as of Aug. 18. There were seven closings in May, June and July in this price range, with five pricing out at less than $1.3 million and two recording at more than $2.5 million.

Five deals were pending on Aug. 18: three houses under $1.3 million and two over $2.5 million. The tough price range for sellers is $1.3 million to $2.5 million.

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Is it a good time to sell? “While it depends on your segment of the market, your flexibility and your realism as to where the market is right now, if you are willing to accept the fact that your house is not worth what it was in 2008, it’s a perfectly fine time to list your house,” Jackson said.

Prices could recover in three to five years, longer for some homes in the higher price brackets. “Housing is not an exact science, but if you bought a foreclosure in 2008 and paid below market, you may not be down at all,” Jackson said.